Pilot Demographics

Pilot Past Tense

March 12, 2018 by Scott Spangler

Asking newly met people their occupations is a phatic conversation starter that leads me down the semantic rabbit hole. Upon learning that I’m a word merchant, they ask what I write about. After hearing “aviation,” they ask if I’m a pilot, which is usually followed by “What do you fly?”

And so it starts.

Yes, I earned my private pilot certificate in 1976 and my instrument rating and commercial certificate in the 1990s. Because those certificates will never expire, I proudly acknowledge to the title of pilot, as a noun: “a person qualified to operate the control of an aircraft or spacecraft” (I wish!).

But “pilot” is also a transitive verb: “to act as a pilot of, on, in, or over” some craft. To pilot an aircraft in the present tense requires a valid medical certification (in a form applicable to the certificates and ratings held), a current flight review, and the documentation of compliance with the applicable currency requirements.

In this regard, I’m a pilot in the past tense. As far as I know right now, I possess no intellectual or physical disqualification that would prevent me from becoming a pilot in the future tense. And there are times, especially on nice spring and summer days, when I consider investing in piloting in the present tense. And then I get another notice that seems to be counting down the months until I must enroll in Medicare.

But what is life but a series of difficult decisions? One day every pilot will realize he or she has reached the point of no return and will have to make a decision that will define the narrative that is the remainder of their lives. And like writing a story, there is no one right or wrong way, but each path is lined with consequences directly related to it. Only time will tell if there’s another logbook entry along the path I’ve chosen.

A tangent on this debate of pilot tenses is one of aeronautical identity: is a pilot in the past tense still a pilot noun? Depending on my mood, I’ve taken both sides. I recommend that you not conduct this mental effort while tensely stretched out in the dentist’s recliner. It never ends well.

If you’re facing a similar cognitive conversation and you’re just not in the mood to deal with our pilot tense at the moment, may I recommend distraction. This always works for me: If a pilot in the present tense is airborne and the sole manipulator of the controls when time springs forward or falls back, how does he or she log it? — Scott Spangler, Editor

Pilots, Aviation & The Paradox of Progress

January 30, 2017 by Scott Spangler

A statement or situation that seems contradictory or absurd but may be true in fact is a paradox. “Water, water everywhere but not a drop to drink!” is the paradox for mariners adrift in any ocean. For aviators, the paradox is that progress in technology that makes their flying lives easier is also reducing the number of seats for them in the pointy end of airplanes.If the paradox is not clear, it is the fact that as more and more machines replace human workers the population has increased, meaning more and more people are competing for fewer and fewer jobs.

Ultimately, “automation” summarizes the paradox of progress in a single word. It started with the Industrial Revolution and it continues today. There’s work, work, everywhere but not a job to be had because it’s all being done by machines that are more efficient and, in the long term, more economical.

Technology’s replacement of people is easily seen in aviation. It wasn’t that long ago that commercial aircraft had flight engineers, and before that navigators and radio operators. Looking forward, it should be easy to see a single person managing a commercial aircraft system, first from the aircraft itself, and then from a ground station.

Some will surely say they’d never fly on an aircraft managed in this manner. But aren’t we today cramming ourselves into commercial aircraft systems managed by the two operators who sit up front? To see the future, look back and connect the dots of technology from bonfires to beacons to satellites and from blind flying instruments to autopilots to flight management systems.

A Million Reports, Accidents & Demographics

April 29, 2012 by Scott Spangler

On April 24, the e-mail edition of Callback arrived in my in box. It proudly announced that the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System had processed its one millionth safety incident report on March 21, 2012. Three days later I received the NTSB release addressing 2011’s preliminary stats, No Fatalities On U.S. Airlines or Commuters, General Aviation Accidents Increased.

Safety is the only direct relationship between the coincidental announcements.

After reading the 2011 stats, there appeared to be no significant reason for alarms. The increases were small, just 50 more accidents for all of civil aviation, with total fatalities up just 12, and on-demand Part 135 ops and GA were responsible for the the bulk of them. Given the small numbers, they are the margin of error that nothing will eliminate.

Digging into the ASRS numbers, and who made the reports, proved far more interesting. NASA started counting them in April 1976, and reached 1 million a month short of 36 years later. Using simple math, that’s 27,778 a year, 2,315 a month, 579 a week, or 83 a day. This ASRS chart above shows how quickly pilots got on board with the program. But that’s not the surprise. It’s who made the reports, and the demographic changes in their numbers over three decades of pilot population shrinkage.

2010 Updates Pilot Population Highs & Lows

March 9, 2011 by Scott Spangler

Using FAA data provided by the General Aviation Manufacturers Association’s annual Statistical Databook, I’ve built a spreadsheet of pilot population data back to 1964. Updating it for 2010 revealed a new highpoint in pilot certification: 96,473 active flight instructor certificates.

The number of CFIs has been trending consistently upward since its 1968 nadir of 30,361. Their numbers grew by 1,610 between 2009 and 2010. What’s really interesting, however, is that in 2009, instructors outnumbered active student certificates by 22,583.

The FAA issued just 72,280 student certificates in 2009, the lowest number since 1964. Despite the economy, student numbers rebounded remarkably (46,839 is a good bounce) in 2010, topping out at 119,119, which led to an overall increase in the pilot population.

In 2010, the number of active private pilots shrunk by 9,599, to 202,020. Given all the reasons for letting a certificate go inactive, there’s no accurate formula for predicting how student numbers affect sport, recreational, and private pilot figures. But the past offers some hints.