Am I the only one who missed the news in July 2010 that the FAA nearly doubled the life of a student pilot certificate (and the third-class medical certificate) for those 40 and younger, from 36 months to 60 months?
This discovery came with a question from JetWhine Publisher Rob Mark. He sent a link to the FAA Certificated Pilots 1929-2011 page on the AOPA website and asked, “Something weird about student starts here. Are they adding them all together?”
The table showed 72,280 active student tickets in 2009 and 119,119 in 2010, with an estimated 115,000 in 2011. The fine print told of the ticket’s new lifespan and said it was behind the significant increase in the student number. At first glance it seems like good news, until you see the 4,119 decline in the 2011 student estimate.
A more accurate—and telling—number is found on the FAA website, on Table 17 of the US Civil Airmen Statistics: Original Airmen Certificates Issued 2001-2010, a section of which is shown above. Original certificates issued is aviation’s birthrate, the number of newborn pilots joining the family. Look at the number of student, recreational, sport, and private tickets issued. The story they tell is not good for aviation’s future. Given the economy, anyone want to guess what the 2011 numbers will look like?
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