Secretary Duffy’s ATC Modernization Plan Has Just a Couple of Problems

“The performance of the system depends on how the parts fit, not how they act taken separately.” Doctor Russell Ackoff – American organizational theorist, consultant, a pioneer in the field of operations research, systems thinking and management science. 

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In case you missed last week’s unveiling of the White House plan to revitalize the nation’s arthritic air traffic control system, I’d encourage you to spend an hour or so watching the video replay of DOT Secretary Sean Duffy strutting around the stage like rooster in a new hen house as he detailed the plan. Just be ready to see a parade of airline CEOs, association execs, and politicians patting the administration on the back before the show moves to the details. It was quite the show.

Of course, let’s not forget Mr. Duffy’s boss is Donald J Trump, a fellow who has some experience spectacularly plastering a message around the media nearly every hour of every day.

On a more serious note, I actually don’t deny the Secretary his moment of glory, because never in the 40 years since I left the FAA have I seen any administration spend as much media time focusing on an ATC overhaul. Of course, there’s been no lack of ideas over the past 40 years. Remember the MLS, AAS, ISSS, FANS, GPS, CPDLC, NextGen, STARS, and ERAM. Some worked. But all of them demanded huge sums of taxpayer cash. Some broke down, and nearly all ran over budget. Most importantly, even the new technology was usually outdated by the time the FAA was putting together the bits and pieces.

But that was then. This is now.

The Department plans to rip the guts out of the old ATC radar, radio, and connectivity systems, technology for which there often are no spare parts when a breakdown occurs. It’s a system in which the mice have probably chewed through the wiring to cause the radar screens to go dark and the radios to go dead, as it appears happened at Newark over the past few weeks. A Newark controller recently transferred from the NY TRACON said, “Some of us have lost confidence in the equipment. The drop in service quality isn’t from a lack of care. It’s from a lack of resources.”

The DOT in the next three years or so plans to “seek to transform the United States air traffic control system from its current antiquated state to a modern system capable of meeting the demands of today and the future. This proposal will build a new, state-of-the-art, air traffic control system in three years that will enhance the safety and efficiency of our nation’s airspace.”

This all sounds impressive, and it will be, IF the agency can pull it off. But nothing will happen without serious support from Congress.

That’s What

Tens of thousands of American households include better constructed home theatre systems than what’s available at the Philadelphia TRACON from where the Newark sector ATC instructions flow. So why has the nation’s ATC system been pieced together with chicken wire and Duct tape?

The goal seemed to be to get the technology to work, but not necessarily to build a new ATC system. There were many vendors to corral and the money to pay for everything appeared in drips and drabs. And too, no one really cared that much because even the old technology still worked, except when it didn’t.

But Where’s the How?

If you read the plan, you’ll notice that nowhere does it mention the men and women operating this new Gee-Wizz technology. Remember them, Mr. Duffy? Those are the folks who are often still working mandatory six-day weeks with 10-hour shifts. And this will continue for at least another two or three years before there’s any relief? Really?

You’ve often mentioned the need to hire more air traffic controllers. That’s a great idea. But what’s your strategy for that? For decades, the plan has been simple. If the system needs 2,000 new controllers, hire 2,000 new controllers. Except that idea has never worked either, because the failure rate of trainees still hovers around 30-35 percent. If you want 2,000 new controllers, you probably need to begin training 2500-3000 people to end up with 2000. The chronic understaffing isn’t a recent problem. It’s not even a 10-year-old problem. The core of the staffing issue dates back to August 3, 1981, when President Reagan fired nearly 13,000 controllers. I was not a supporter of the strike, though. I’m simply pointing out that the agency never took the action it should have to fix staffing back then.

Nowhere in the plan does anyone mention that the agency needs a better way to qualify applicants before they start training, to learn whether they have the right stuff to survive in this job? It takes some people a while to realize that a grueling week of making split-second decisions eight hours a day isn’t for them. By then, the agency had wasted months and sometimes years on someone who never came up to speed. The only solution at that point is to grab another recruit and start the journey again.

I understand why all those people at the podium the other day were practically giddy about the Secretary’s plan. There hasn’t been anything like it since 1981. But the US has the world’s biggest, safest, and most complex ATC system. This sounds impressive, but the details of how the President’s “Great Big Beautiful ATC system” will come together are noticeably absent. Where’s the research data or the big questions the DOT asked before they began? Many worry Mr. Trump will hand this project over to his pal Elon Musk and let him run with it like he did DOGE.

And while Mr. Musk’s companies have helped create some impressive results over the past 10 years, does everyone really believe Mr. Musk can pull this off?

Me … I believe we should be very skeptical of a plan that sounds way too good to be true.

Rob Mark, Publisher